Quick links + thinking out loud, April 2025
“Rabbits sometimes make mistakes or grow lazy. That’s when the tortoise seizes its chance.” China referring to the West’s mistakes in energy research and policy
Hi all, what a time eh! I had a fleeting moment this week to collate some of my thoughts and links I’ve enjoyed reading.
While being main-lined into the news cycle is never instructive, today, maintaining a viewpoint independent of the news is critical and cathartic. In the last two months, I’ve spoken to more mission-led technical talent building Europe’s future than I did in the entirety of last year. It’s hard to reconcile the excitement of what I’m seeing on the ground with the macro.
Anyway, read what’s been on my mind below.
Agree, disagree? Message me, I want to hear your thoughts.
ICYMI
I published a piece on ensuring Europe’s Industrial Prosperity, give it a read
Everything that happened last month in technology geopolitics
💡Things I’ve been thinking:
Highly volatile times are the symptom, not the cause
Trump’s re-election may leave you feeling like the newscycle is on overdrive
However, his election is just a symptom of a bigger trend
Call it late-stage capitalism, deglobalisation or the Fourth Turning (!)
A world with ubiquitous internet connectivity means higher variance, exponentials and tail risks
Entities and ideologies that break out of the noise and go viral will succeed
Volatilty will continue to be a feature not a bug
There is no more non-consensus investing in VC
At least in traditional definition, which focuses on sector + theme
As VC has proliferated, capital coverage of *all* themes is prevalent
The only way to be non-consensus is by founder type, geography or business model (yes, the irony is not lost on me :) )
Capital efficiency in AI is game theoretical
Many believe that founders will eschew VC due to rapid organic growth (eg Cursor, Lovable)
This may be true in true niches where venture-scale outcomes are less obvious and likely
However, in large markets, founders will raise if they believe their competitors are likely to do so
A similar dynamic played out in 2012 - 2019 in “capital efficient” asset lgiht marketplaces, with the Uber subsidy war being the prime example
Some quick reads I enjoyed:
🐺 How Colossal Biosciences brought back Dire Wolves from extinction (Moonshots by Peter Diamantis): the company has brought back to life a wolf which has been extinct for 10,000 years. The science and engineering challenge is as fascinating as the ethical concerns
🇨🇳 SemiAnalysis and Asianometry reveal Huawei’s datacenter rack products and the effects of tariffs on the semis supply chain (ChinaTalk): A look into Huawei, who are building leading edge capabilities in everything from 7nm data center racks, to electric cars and consumer electronics
🇪🇺 Ursula Von de Leyen interview with Zeit “we have no bros and oligarchs” (Zeit): Telling read. Its incredible to me that someone vying for the title of leader of liberal ideology has so few opinions, policies or views. The EU is still not shifting from being a reactive social union to a proactive economic one
Speaking of which.. Europe still lives in a security Utopia (Foreign Policy) : A thoughtful piece which echoes my sentiment: whilst the EU has pronounced it has “woken up”, it has done little to wean itself off of US-state backed security. I do not believe that the EU is equipped to navigate anything other than peacetime
🔬The most cited research papers of the 21st Century (Nature): fascinating to see the rankings. You should try and guess which fields numbers 1, 2 and 3 are in before clicking the link! I got 1 out of the 3 :/
🏌🏼♂️Google announces Ironwood, a TPU for inference (Google): Alphabet has been quietly building a powerful full-stack gen AI capabilities from custom semiconductors (TPUs), networking and cloud, to models and end applications (Gemini, DeepMind and GSuite integrations) without the external dependence, eg Microsoft + OpenAI
☢️ China powers first Thorium nuclear reactor (Popular Mechanics): China just fired their GenIV SMRs, which use Thorium as fuel, a material that is 60,000x more abundant than Uranium and considerably safer. The US abandoned research into thorium in the 1950s to develop uranium-based weapons
💰The Rise of Production Capital (Venture Desktop) a great read by friend of the newsletter Brett Bivens, on financing what Russell Napier would call “national capitalism”, non-discretionary state capacity and technology. Something I hhave thought about at length given my investing focus
I’ll be back with the regular scheduling next week. If you enjoyed this post, please share it with a colleague!